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Just been catching up on some of your recent posts, great stuff, really thought provoking.
With regards to mobile apps, I'd say 5% are useful on a daily basis and 95% aren't useful at all and are nothing more than 'toys' really for early-adopters. I use the Gmail app which is very slick but Twitter, do you know anybody who isn't a 'geek' who uses it or has even heard of it?
For me all of these apps are great for amusign myself and my fellow geeks but as far as mass market goes then I still think we are many. many years away from significant usage of the mobile web, nevermind apps on a mobile.
As to one web v two, you have the FreeWeb and the TollWeb. Guess which one gets the traffic, unless you just have to use the other.
I guess it isn't really an either/or situation, but it is likely to be heavily tilted in one direction or another and having this sort of perspective helps in assessing the likely success of technologies and companies.
And 5% of mobile apps being useful on a daily basis is a big step forward. For sure this is yet to go mass market, but if geeks are at 5% this year they will be more next and the hoardes will follow soon after.
1) mobile app
2) mobile app of web app
3) web app that works in mobile browser
I know it's a case of the best tool for the job, and Apple's announcements will kick start option 3. Will Apple's implementation of option 3 be good enough to start dismissing the other 2, will Nokia/Motorola adapt to some extent?
As your interested, I use a Nokia N73. No keyboard.